The Diamond Market in 2026: What July’s Biggest Industry Developments Really Mean

The diamond industry entered the second half of 2026 with an important question: Has the natural diamond market finally found its floor, or is the recent price improvement only a temporary stabilization?

July brought several developments that could shape the market for years to come. Anglo American advanced plans to sell its 85% stake in De Beers, natural diamond prices showed their strongest signs of stabilization in more than a year, miners continued reducing supply, and U.S. trade policy introduced new considerations for major diamond-producing and jewelry-manufacturing centers.

At the same time, lab-grown diamonds continued to reshape consumer expectations around size, pricing and value.

For anyone buying, selling or manufacturing diamond jewelry, the message from July is clear: the diamond market is changing structurally, not simply moving through another ordinary price cycle.

De Beers Could Be Heading Toward a New Ownership Era

The biggest industry story of July was Anglo American's progress toward a sale of its majority stake in De Beers.

Botswana's government said Anglo had selected the Global Diamond Consortium, led by former De Beers CEO Gareth Penny, as its preferred bidder for the company's 85% stake. Botswana already owns the remaining 15% and is evaluating how it may participate in the transaction, including its pre-emption rights. The transaction was expected to require further approvals and could potentially close in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Reports later indicated that the proposed transaction could be worth approximately $1 billion for Anglo's 85% stake, with a reported combination of upfront and deferred consideration and potential performance-related payments. However, Anglo CEO Duncan Wanblad subsequently emphasized that the process was not yet finalized and that more than one group remained involved.

The potential price is particularly striking when compared with De Beers' historical valuation.

When De Beers was taken private in 2001, the company was valued at approximately $17.6 billion. A reported $1 billion consideration for 85% of the company would imply an equity value of roughly $1.18 billion before considering the precise transaction structure.

That represents an extraordinary decline in valuation over the past quarter century.

However, the comparison needs context: the 2001 figure was the valuation of the transaction through which De Beers was taken private, rather than a simple $17.6 billion cash payment made solely by Anglo American.

De Beers Is Improving — But It Is Not Yet Back to Health

The potential sale comes while De Beers' financial performance is showing signs of improvement.

In the first half of 2026, De Beers reported revenue of approximately $1.58 billion, down 19% year over year. Its underlying loss narrowed to $188 million, while the EBITDA loss improved to $113 million. The company also achieved significant progress in reducing costs.

This is an important distinction.

The business is becoming less loss-making, but that does not mean the natural diamond market has returned to its previous strength.

Cost reductions, lower capital spending and adjustments to the business helped improve results while revenue and average selling prices remained under pressure.

In other words, De Beers' first-half results point more toward stabilization and restructuring than a broad-based recovery.

De Beers Cut Rough Prices to Bring Them Closer to Reality

Another major July development was De Beers' decision to reduce rough diamond prices, particularly for smaller goods.

Rapaport reported that De Beers significantly cut rough prices at its July sight, especially for material below approximately 0.75 carats, after rough prices had become disconnected from the economics of the polished market. The company also reduced the number of sightholders under its new contract structure.

This matters because the economics of a diamond depend on the entire chain:

Rough cost → cutting and polishing → certification → financing → inventory → wholesale price → retail price

When rough is purchased at a price that cannot be recovered through polished sales, the result is inventory pressure and margin destruction.

Lower rough prices can therefore help restore equilibrium.

The decision also highlights how much the market has changed for smaller natural diamonds, where competition from lab-grown diamonds is particularly intense.

Natural Diamond Prices Finally Show Signs of Stabilization

Rapaport's July data provides one of the clearest indications yet that parts of the natural diamond market may be forming a floor.

The 1-carat Rapaport Trade Diamond Index (RAPI) was stable in July, ending 13 consecutive months of declines. Smaller stones performed even better, with the 0.30-carat RAPI rising 1.6% and the 0.50-carat RAPI increasing 1.8%. The 3-carat index also increased by approximately 0.2%.

This followed a strong June for smaller diamonds, when the 0.30-carat RAPI increased 4.2% and the 0.50-carat RAPI rose 1.3%.

The significance is not that diamonds suddenly entered a new bull market.

Rather, the prolonged downward trend is showing signs of exhaustion in selected categories.

That is a very different — and more defensible — conclusion.

The Recovery Is Being Driven by Supply Discipline

Why are smaller natural diamonds beginning to stabilize?

One major factor is shrinking supply.

Rapaport reported that global rough diamond production fell about 8% in 2025 to roughly 98.8–99 million carats, while miners continued responding to weak market conditions by reducing production and adjusting operations.

The market is therefore experiencing a classic supply response:

Lower demand → lower prices → mine and inventory reductions → tighter availability → potential price stabilization

This process does not guarantee higher prices. It simply creates the conditions necessary for the market to find a sustainable level.

De Beers' decision to reduce rough prices and production exposure to weaker categories fits directly into this broader adjustment.

Large Natural Diamonds Tell a Different Story

The natural diamond market is not moving uniformly.

Large, rare and high-value stones continue to perform much better than many lower-value categories.

Gem Diamonds provides a useful example. During H1 2026, the company reported revenue of $59.5 million, up 33% year over year, while its average selling price increased 38% to $1,395 per carat. Carats sold were actually down 4%.

That combination is revealing.

Gem Diamonds sold fewer carats but generated substantially more revenue because its product mix remained focused on higher-value natural diamonds.

The company also noted that lower-quality, smaller rough diamonds remain severely affected by synthetic-diamond competition.

This supports a broader industry trend:

The natural diamond market is becoming increasingly polarized between ordinary commercial goods and genuinely scarce, high-value diamonds.

Rapaport Buyer Searches Show What Trade Buyers Want

Rapaport's August 2026 Diamond Pulse also gives an interesting look at buyer behavior.

For its 1.00–1.49 carat listings, G–J VS accounted for 23.1% of searches, ahead of D–F IF–VVS at 20.7% and D–F VS at 16.6%. G–J also represented approximately 63.2% of the corresponding inventory.

These numbers should be interpreted correctly.

They are buyer searches on Rapaport Trade, not a measurement of total global consumer demand. They are nevertheless useful for understanding what active B2B marketplace participants are looking for.

The data suggests continuing interest in diamonds offering a strong balance between appearance, quality and price rather than demand being concentrated exclusively in the highest color and clarity grades.

That is particularly relevant in a market where buyers are becoming increasingly value-conscious.

July's Strongest 1-Carat Movement Was Not in the Traditional Top Grades

The July data also reveals an unusual pricing pattern.

Across the 1.00–1.49 carat range tracked by Rapaport, K–M VS diamonds rose 2.8% in July, making them one of the strongest performing combinations in the reported categories. G–J and D–F segments were generally much more stable, while SI categories showed mixed results.

This should not be interpreted as meaning lower colors have suddenly become more valuable than premium goods.

Instead, it shows how dramatically price movements can be influenced by inventory availability and category-specific supply conditions.

The market is becoming less straightforward.

Simply asking whether “diamond prices are up” is no longer enough.

Buyers and sellers need to ask:

Which size? Which color? Which clarity? Which shape? Which market? And what inventory is actually available?

Lab-Grown Diamonds Continue to Redefine Consumer Value

One of the structural reasons behind the natural diamond industry's transformation is the rapid rise of lab-grown diamonds.

Lab-grown diamonds are chemically and physically diamond, but they are produced through controlled manufacturing processes rather than geological formation.

Their increasing availability has changed how consumers evaluate diamond jewelry.

A customer comparing a natural diamond and a lab-grown diamond may now focus heavily on:

carat size, visual appearance, design, customization and total jewelry price.

That creates significant pressure on ordinary commercial natural diamonds.

At the same time, it gives lab-grown diamonds their own distinct value proposition.

Rather than positioning lab-grown diamonds simply as inexpensive substitutes for natural stones, modern jewelry brands can present them around design freedom, larger sizes, customization and accessible luxury.

The U.S. Trade Environment Adds Another Variable

Another major July development came from U.S. trade policy.

The U.S. Trade Representative announced Section 301 actions connected to forced-labor investigations involving 60 economies. The final framework established a 10% Section 301 rate for India and several other investigated economies, while a 12.5% rate applied to many other economies, subject to the specific rules and product treatments in the final framework. Certain products also received exemptions or special treatment.

For the global jewelry industry, this is particularly important because India is one of the world's most important diamond cutting and polishing centers.

Trade policy can influence landed cost, pricing strategy, sourcing decisions and the economics of international jewelry manufacturing.

For businesses serving the U.S. market, origin documentation and accurate customs classification therefore become increasingly important.

What the De Beers Sale Really Says About Natural Diamonds

The potential De Beers transaction should not be viewed simply as one company changing hands.

It is a symbol of how the natural diamond industry is being restructured.

The old model relied heavily on:

large-scale mining + expanding distribution + strong rough demand + broad-based consumer growth

The emerging model is more focused on:

supply discipline + scarcity + cost control + differentiated product + data-driven inventory management

A new owner of De Beers may ultimately need to place greater emphasis on high-value natural diamonds, operational efficiency, market discipline and the specific categories where natural scarcity remains commercially powerful.

What This Means for Diamond Buyers in 2026

For consumers, the current market creates more choice than ever.

Natural diamonds continue to offer geological rarity, provenance and the traditional history associated with mined diamonds.

Lab-grown diamonds provide another route to diamond jewelry, particularly for buyers prioritizing size, design and price-to-value.

Neither market needs to eliminate the other.

Instead, the industry is moving toward clearer segmentation.

For a buyer choosing a diamond today, the most important questions are no longer simply “natural or lab-grown?”

They are:

What quality do I actually need?

How important is rarity to me?

Do I want the largest possible diamond for my budget?

Am I prioritizing a specific design or custom setting?

What matters most: origin, size, appearance, or overall value?

The answers will determine which diamond category makes the most sense.

The Road Ahead: A More Selective Diamond Market

The events of July 2026 suggest that the diamond market is entering a new phase.

Natural diamond prices are showing early signs of stabilization, particularly in smaller categories that experienced substantial declines. Rough supply is being reduced. De Beers is restructuring and potentially changing ownership. Large natural diamonds continue to command strong attention, while lab-grown diamonds continue to reshape consumer expectations.

This does not mean the diamond industry has returned to the conditions of 2021 or 2022.

It means the market is rebalancing.

For natural diamonds, the future may increasingly belong to rarity, scarcity and exceptional stones.

For lab-grown diamonds, the opportunity is different: more design flexibility, larger sizes, customization and transparent value.

At KREAN JEWELS, we believe today's diamond market is best understood not as a competition between two identical products, but as an expanding choice between different forms of diamond value.

Whether you choose natural or lab-grown, the most important decision is finding a diamond that fits your priorities, your style and the jewelry you want to wear.

July–August 2026 Diamond Market at a Glance